Statistics dating


In our case here, about one in ten of the first dates I have been on have led to something more , so we'll start with a prior probability of 10%, or 0.1, that my date is into me at the very beginning of the date.Of course, this prior probability is not overly useful to us.But there is of course also a chance that the early stages of the date go well, even if there is no chemistry there — my date might be laughing at my jokes out of politeness, or perhaps enjoy my company platonically, without any other spark.We deal with this situation in the lower right corner of the equation.


We call this updated assessment of the likelihood of our proposition the "posterior probability".In our case, P(E | A) should be reasonably high — if my date is into me, it is pretty likely that my date will enjoy my witty banter.We can estimate this then as saying P(E | A) = 0.8, or 80%.One way to interpret this probability is as my degree of certainty, measured from 0% to 100%, that A is true — that my date is in fact into me.


We start with a "prior" probability — a baseline, without any particular evidence for or against the proposition, before the date begins, often based on historical observations.This post will teach you how to incorporate events that happen during your date into figuring out whether the date is going well and likely to lead to something more.


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  3. eric   •  

    Për çdo shqiptar është një lumturi që ia arriti ta përjetojë këtë ditë të ndritur të Lirisë e Pavarësisë së Kosovës, pavarësisht se ka ende fuqi të mëdha që kërcënojnë popujt e vegjël në të drejtat e tyre të nënvetësisë, siç kanë bërë edhe me Shqipërinë e tani me Kosovën. Çështje ndërkombëtare, për shumë arsye konjukturale në mes fuqive të mëdha, rrethana që ndihmuan Kosovën të ketë mbështetje e mbrojtje nga ato fuqi të mëdha, në plan të parë SHBA-ja, të interesuara qoftë për interesat e veta që në rajonin tonë, në Ballkanin e trazuar, kur Serbia, me prirjet e saj naziste, shkaktoi konflikte e masakra të tipit hitlerian, të vendoset një ekuilibër i qëndrueshëm në mes popujve e etnive të këtij rajoni, për t’u ngritur në nivelin e popujve demokratë, që bëjnë pjesë në Bashkimin Evropian. Ngjarja e jashtëzakonshme që solli 17 Shkurti, është një ngjarje që të ngarkon me emocione shumë të forta, duke përkujtuar gjithë ata bij të kombit shqiptar, që me pushkë e penë luftuan gjithë jetën për një Shqipëri të bashkuar, të lirë e të pavarur.

  4. eric   •  

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  5. eric   •  

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